Cincinatti +14 vs. Alabama 3:30pm
This pick comes down to two factors. First, the line freeze on this game really caught our attention. Between the spread, parlays, and teasers, the public money is pouring in on Alabama. It's not uncommon for Bama to catch heavy public money, but what is uncommon is for the books not to adjust a line when they have a liability. This line has barely budged from where it opened. Most books have the line at 13.5, and it seems that every time one of the books offers a 14, it is sharply bought back to 13.5. Our numbers show positive expected value on the dog in this spot. If you want the 14, head over to FanDuel while they have the +14 at (-110).
Michigan +7.5 vs. Georgia 7:30pm
These two teams are quite similar. Both bring in an elite defense and a strong run game. Neither team is built around their QB, these are two physical teams that win in the trenches. That being said, our data suggests that Michigan played significantly better competition to get here. Georgia cruised through the weaker side of the SEC, and got blown out the moment they faced an elite team. Michigan finished the season with blowout wins against Ohio State and Iowa. It's also worth noting that Big 10 teams are 5-0 straight up in bowls so far. This conference had a lot of top tier teams this year, and Michigan made it through nearly all of them. We like Michigan to keep this game within a touchdown. We will grab the 7.5 points on the underdog!
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