Heat vs. Celtics 8:30pm 

The Celtics are expected to be without both Al Horford and Derrick White tonight. That being said, the Celtics are expected to get back defensive player of the year Marcus Smart. He's listed as probable for this game. There's been reports that Horford could potentially play, but we like this +3 number regardless. Aside from a very poor 3rd quarter in game 1 (where the Heat outscored the Celtics 39-14), the Celtics won the other 3 quarters of that game. Celtics coach Ime Udoka has been great at making adjustments throughout this postseason, and we'd expect a lot of those breakdowns in the 3rd quarter to be corrected tonight. Several books have already dropped this number toward Boston. Our model also suggests there is value on Boston here, so we will trust our numbers. Fading home favorites can be tough to stomach with the blowouts we've been seeing during these NBA playoffs. It's important to remember that when you're betting based on positive EV (expected value), it's about how these spots perform over a larger sample size. We are grabbing the 3 points with the Celtics. Whether they win outright or get blown out, we will live with the result knowing we got a good number. Our bet is one unit on the road dogs.

Remember, all picks are available 100% free! Simply head to the "Sign Up" page and join the SteadyPicks team.