We are going to bet this game early with the hopes of getting good closing line value. Starting with Arkansas, Eric Musselman is back in the sweet 16 for the 3rd straight year. Looking back at each of the last 3 Arkansas teams, they all ranked right around the top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Musselman’s coaching philosophy has translated to a lot of success in March. He had a sweet 16 run with Nevada back in 2018 in addition to all of his recent success at Arkansas. The weaknesses of this year's Razorbacks team are three point shooting (318th nationally in three point percentage), free throw shooting (268th in free throw percentage), and rebounding (rank outside the top 100 in majority of offensive and defensive rebounding metrics). Moving over to UConn, this is arguably the most complete team in the nation from top to bottom. The Huskies rank 3rd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. More importantly in this matchup, UConn is dominant on the boards. They rank 2nd in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, and the Huskies have been dominating their opponents with 2nd chance opportunities. UConn features two highly talented big men in Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan. Arkansas has a 6"9 senior in Makhi Mitchell at the center position, and a 6”7 freshman (Jordan Walsh) at the 4 spot. Neither of these two have overly impressive rebounding metrics. Not only is UConn fantastic in the paint, but they also have fantastic guard play to go along with their big men. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Arkansas have success early in this game. However, over the course of 40 minutes, we like UConn's odds to win this game by north of 3 points. The Huskies have been a very good 2nd half team. They outscored Iona 50-24 in the 2nd half in round 1, and outscored Saint Mary's 39-25 in the 2nd half of round 2. We will lay the 3 points over at Caesars, and we will also look for some live betting value on UConn if Arkansas jumps ahead early.

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