Alabama -4 (-110)
These teams played in the regular season finale (in College Station Texas), with Texas A&M winning the game 67-61. It’s important to note, Alabama had arguably their worst offensive performance of the season in that game. They certainly had their worst offensive half, scoring just 22 points (2/19 from the three point line, and 6/29 overall from the field). Despite the offensive struggles, and playing on the road in a hostile environment, Alabama nearly overcame it. There were some crucial calls down the stretch that swung the game A&M's way. If Alabama plays closer to their season averages, they should win this game by north of 4 points. Alabama ranks 3rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 21st offensively. They play at one of the fastest tempos in the nation. Texas A&M ranks just outside of the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they play at a slower pace. It will be interesting to keep an eye on which team is able to dictate the tempo. Texas A&M ranks 250th nationally in three point percentage, and 227th in effective field goal percentage. In other words, there is a big discrepancy between these offenses. The only two edges we see for the Aggies are offensive rebounding and free throw shooting. That said, Bama is by no means poor in those metrics. Our wager is a half unit on Alabama to win the SEC tournament by north of 4 points.
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