This wager is based on a pretty large discrepancy between our model, and the current spread. We referenced our numbers to KenPom who's model is also projecting an outright win. The sportsbooks reference KenPom as well, so we looked at several other respected public resources. None of which have Alabama State losing this game by more than 3 points. We could not find any logical reason why this line would be 5-6 points off from where the market sits. Neither one of these teams are very good (putting it nicely), but Alabama State is 4-0 at home this season. We will trust the numbers here and take the 4 points with the home underdogs.

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