Before we get into our 3 golden rules, here are a few quick baseball betting terms to be familiar with.

Moneyline: Betting a team to simply win the game.

Example: I like the Phillies to win in a close game. I’m going to bet them on the moneyline.

Run Line: Betting a team’s margin of victory, similar to a point spread.

Example: I like the Phillies to win this game by 2 runs or more. I’m going to bet them on the run line at -1.5. 

Total (Over/Under): Betting on how many runs will be scored in a game.

Example: The wind is blowing in at Wrigley field today. I’m going to bet under 8 total runs to be scored.

Right out of the gate, eliminating these 2 vices will make you a more profitable MLB bettor. Parlays are fun. The payouts are exciting, but they are bad business for your betting accounts! Especially in the MLB. Sportsbooks clean up on MLB parlays. Be prepared to lose this season if you had parlays as a big part of your MLB betting strategy. Betting heavy favorites in the MLB is also a big mistake. Over the last 20 years, betting favorites of (-155) or higher have a winning percentage over 60%, but an ROI of more than -300 units (wagering one unit per game). If you want to be that person with a 65% win percentage who’s losing money every week, then go grab those big favorites!

One of the biggest challenges for inexperienced MLB bettors is the fear of losing bets. Over the course of a 162 game season, while betting a lot of underdogs, there’s inevitably going to be some bad runs. It’s important to keep your blinders on and stay the course during these tough stretches. The bookmakers know how hard losing is for bettors, and they know how few can stomach hitting far less than 50% of their bets. That said, consider that most profitable MLB systems have a win percentage well below 45%. Win percentage is the least important metric to measure success in this sport. As hard as it is (and trust us losing is hard), try to see the bigger picture in a very long MLB season. 

At SteadyPicks we often look for divisional dog road spots with high totals, and here’s why. Home field advantage is almost always overvalued, and especially in divisional spots. Very few teams have a legitimate home field advantage during the regular season. In terms of the totals, the higher the books are projecting the score to be, the more variance that creates, which favors the underdog. This has historically been a highly profitable betting strategy, and we expect that to continue. 

Our final note to all the MLB bettors who are gearing up for opening day is to make sure you have as many options as possible to place your bets. Finding the best number in market is key to putting your best foot forward for success.

Here is a fun example to further explain the value of line shopping. Imagine you are looking to get a cup of coffee delivered to you. You have 5 Apps on your phone that all have the same cup of coffee. All have the same delivery time, yet they have 5 different prices. Why wouldn’t you buy the least expensive cup of coffee?

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