Here we are backing who our model suggests has the better starting pitcher, lineup, and bullpen. Cubs starter Hayden Wesneski had a phenomenal spring training. He threw 17 innings only allowing 4 earned runs. The more impressive metric for Wesneski was his 11.6 SO9 (average strikeout rate per 9 innings pitched). In addition, Wesneski pitched very well in his 11 innings against the Reds last season (just 1 earned run). Reds starter Luis Cessa had a decent spring (4.50 ERA in 6 innings). However, his 2022 numbers were not very good. Luis Cessa struggled against the Cubs posting a 5.14 ERA in his 14 innings against them last season. The Cubs offense showed signs of life yesterday, scoring a season high 6 runs. We will look for that trend to continue today, and for Hayden Wesneski and the Cubs bullpen to do the rest. Cubs moneyline is our bet.

Braves starting pitcher Dylan Dodd will make his MLB debut tonight. This is a tough spot for a rookie. Pitching against this Cardinals lineup in St. Louis is no easy task. Through the first week of the regular season, St. Louis currently has the best hitting metrics in the league. They rank 1st in batting average (.356), OPS (.945), and hits (53). The Cardinals also rank last in strikeouts. Cardinals starting pitcher Steven Matz had a fantastic spring training (1.53 ERA in 17.2 innings pitched). We like the Cardinals to bounce back tonight with a home win.

We like this spot for the road divisional dogs. Rockies starter German Marquez was one of the best pitchers in the MLB throughout spring training. He threw 17 innings posting an ERA of just 0.53. Marquez carried that momentum into the regular season with a strong outing (and a win) in the Rockies opener. It’s also worth noting, German Marquez was significantly better on the road than he was at home last season. His ERA doubled in Denver (3.34 on road versus 6.70 at home). Oddly enough, these home/road splits remain pretty extreme over the course of his 7-8 year career with the Rockies. On the Dodgers side, Julio Urias pitched well in his first start of the year. That being said, our model suggests he’s being overvalued with a (-270) price tag. We will opt for the +1.5 run line behind the underdogs. Our wager is a half unit.