0.75 UNIT PLAY

Scottie Scheffler Top 10 Finish (-125)

After seeing the ridiculous outright prices on Scottie Scheffler, we did not anticipate having a bet on him on this week. The (+600) price implies roughly a 14% win probability for Scottie. Our model has him just below 10%. The highest predicted win percentage we found amongst other respected public golf models was 12%. As much as we love Scottie Scheffler, the price isn't right for an outright win. That being said, BetRivers has a (-125) posted for a top 10 finish that caught our attention. The rest of the market sits closer to (-145) or (-150). Scottie Scheffler’s worst finish since November 2022 has been 12th! He has four consecutive top 5 finishes heading into this tournament. Scheffler looked very sharp in his final two rounds at the Memorial Tournament. We would not recommend betting this any higher than (-125) or (-130), so be sure to shop around for the best price.
(Pick posted 6/14 at 2:21pm via BetRivers)

0.5 UNIT PLAY

Cameron Smith Top 10 Finish (+280)

We have only seen Cameron Smith appear in two PGA events this season. He finished 34th at the Masters in April, and finished 9th at the PGA Championship in May. Smith missed the cut at last year's U.S. Open, but that event took place at a unique course in Brookline Massachusetts. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour for LIV, Cameron Smith finished last season with 7 finishes within the top 10, and 3 outright wins. In the 2021 season, Smith had 8 finishes in the top 10. He’s one of the best golfers in the world, and we anticipate the Australian to play well on the big stage as he has throughout his career. Our stake is a half unit on Smith to finish within the top 10.
(Pick posted 6/14 at 3:02pm via DraftKings)

0.5 UNIT PLAY

Max Homa Top 20 Finish (+110)

Max Homa enters this tournament in good form. He finished 9th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and 8th at the Wells Fargo Championship. If you’re familiar with Max Homa, you should know he loves to play in his home state of California. Homa has 6 career wins, and 4 of those have come in Cali. He ranks 6th on tour in strokes gained total, and 5th in strokes gained putting. Our wager is a half unit on Max Homa to finish within the top 20.
(Pick posted 6/14 at 6:05am via BetMGM)

0.5 UNIT PLAY

Eric Cole Top 30 Finish (+280)

Eric Cole is a bit of a wild card heading into this event. His season started off in nightmare fashion, missing 4 straight cuts. However, there have been a lot of bright spots recently for Cole. Since April 30th, he has played in 7 events. Cole finished 5th at the Mexico Open, 23rd at AT&T Byron Nelson, 15th at the PGA Championship, 24th at the Memorial Tournament, and 6th last week at the RBC Canadian Open. Eric Cole is a fantastic putter. He ranks 2nd on tour in overall putting average, and top 20 in strokes gained putting. This half unit risk on a top 30 finish would net +1.4 units.
(Pick posted 6/14 at 9:27am via FanDuel)

0.5 UNIT PLAY

Mito Pereira Top 30 Finish (+140)

We last saw Mito Pereira at the PGA Championship, where he finished inside the top 20. Pereira also played in the 2023 Masters and finished 43rd. Outside of that, it’s hard to gauge the form that Pereira is in heading into this event. Last summer he finished 3rd at the PGA Championship, 7th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and 13th at the Memorial. That stretch helped land Pereira a lucrative deal with LIV. Our model displays good value at this (+140) price on a top 30 finish. Our risk is a half unit.
(Pick posted 6/14 at 9:31am via DraftKings)

0.25 UNIT PLAY

Viktor Hovland Top 5 Finish (+400)

Viktor Hovalnd is playing as well as anyone on tour right now. He won the Memorial Tournament a couple weeks ago, and finished tied for 2nd at the PGA Championship. Hovland also finished inside the top 10 at the Masters (7th), and tied for 3rd at The Players Championship. He tends to play well in these big events. The key with Hovland is his putter. His metrics outside of his putting are very strong. If Viktor Hovland can control his putter, we like his chances to be right there in the hunt on Sunday. Our wager is a quarter unit on a top 5 finish. BetRivers currently has the best price in market.
(Pick posted 6/14 at 4:31pm via BetRivers)

0.25 UNIT PLAY

Tyrrell Hatton To Win (+3500)

The SteadyPicks community already knows by now how we feel about Tyrrell Hatton. For those who are new, we are going to copy and paste our write up from last week with a few updates and tweaks. Tyrrell Hatton has yet to reel in a win this season. We are going to make a bold prediction here that a win is coming soon for Hatton. When he does win, you can bet your ass that SteadyPicks is going to have a ticket on him. Tyrell Hatton has five consecutive top 20 finishes heading into this tournament (including three in the top 5). He has six finishes this season within the top 6. When you dive into his metrics, Hatton ranks 3rd overall on tour in strokes gained total. He trails only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm. Hatton has very few weaknesses in his game. If Hatton remains in the sharp form he’s been in all year, the door should be open to compete for that first win of the season.
(Pick posted 6/14 at 5:58am via PointsBet)

0.25 UNIT PLAY

Jon Rahm To Win (+1000)

Jon Rahm has all the tools needed to secure his 5th win of the season. Rahm ranks 1st on the PGA Tour in fairway proximity, and 1st in Birdie and Eagle average. He’s one of the few players who can pull away from the field when playing well. Rahm is 2nd on tour in strokes gained total (2.338), trailing only Scottie Scheffler (2.544). These 10-1 odds on John Rahm imply roughly a 9% probability of him winning this tournament. Our model projects this number closer to 10%, so we see a bit of value here. The betting favorite Scottie Scheffler sits around (+600). Those odds imply roughly a 14% chance of Scheffler winning. Our model projects Scottie right around 10% with Jon Rahm, so we see no value in backing Scheffler outright pre-tournament.
(Pick posted 6/14 at 6:00am via BetMGM)

0.25 UNIT PLAY

Xander Schauffele To Win (+1800)

The Southern California native carries strong momentum into this tournament. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 25 since mid March. Xander Schauffele finished top 10 at the Masters, top 20 at the PGA Championship, and has 6 top 5 finishes this season. He has yet to record a win this year, but we have no reason to believe Schauffele won’t be in the hunt on Sunday. He ranks 4th on tour in strokes gained total, 6th in strokes gained approach to green, and 12th in strokes gained putting. His proximity to hole metrics are a bit concerning, but it’s primarily out of the rough where his proximity metrics are below average. At these (+1800) odds, we will jump in with a quarter unit wager.
(Pick posted 6/14 at 3:06pm via BetMGM)