0.5 UNIT PLAY

Viktor Hovland Top 10 Finish (+220)

Viktor Hovland is a fantastic mid range iron player, which should translate to success here at TPC River Highlands. He ranks 6th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee, and 17th in strokes gained approach to the green. Hovland also ranks 6th in shot proximity to hole, which is a key metric for this success at this course. He won at the Memorial Tournament earlier this month, and has finished inside the top 20 in four consecutive events. Our wager is a half unit on Viktor Hovland to crack back into the top 10.
(Pick posted 6/20 at 9:09am via DraftKings)

0.5 UNIT PLAY

Scottie Scheffler Top 10 Finish (-125)

As much as we love Scottie, we can’t justify betting him outright at (+600). Our model does not align with nearly a 15% implied win probability for Scheffler. That being said, we can get behind a 55% implied probability on a top 10 finish. Scottie Scheffler has five consecutive top 5 finishes, and thirteen finishes within the top 10 this season. Scheffler’s worst finish in 2023 has been tied for 12th. We have no reason to forecast Scheffler finishing outside of the top 10. He's in great form, and he shot 10 under par at this tournament last year (finished 13th). Lock us in for a Scottie top 10 ticket.
(Pick posted 6/20 at 10:37am via DraftKings)

0.5 UNIT PLAY

Harris English Top 20 Finish (+250)

Harris English won this event back in 2021, and finished inside the top 20 last year. He enters this tournament in good form. English finished 8th at the U.S. Open, 12th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship. Harry English is a very good putter, he ranks 14th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained putting. TPC River Highlands is a short course, which plays well to Harris’s game. Our wager is on English to finish within the top 20.
(Pick posted 6/20 at 10:02am via BetRivers)

0.5 UNIT PLAY

Justin Suh Top 30 Finish (+230)

Since missing the cut at AT&T Byron Nelson, Justin Suh has been playing very consistent golf. He finished 26th at the PGA Championship, 16th at the Charles Schwab Challenge, and 27th this past weekend at the U.S. Open. TPC River Highlands sets up nicely for Suh, who is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. He ranks 11th in strokes gained putting, and 15th in proximity to hole. Those two metrics are key for success on this course. At (+230) we are willing to take a flier on Justin Suh to land himself another finish inside the top 30.
(Pick posted 6/20 at 10:29am via DraftKings)

0.5 UNIT PLAY

Ludvig Aberg Top 30 Finish (+220)

Ludvig Aberg has only played in three PGA events this season. The 23 year old from Texas Tech held the #1 World Amateur Golf ranking, in addition to the #1 ranking on the PGA Tour U. In Ludvig Aberg's most recent PGA Tour event, he finished top 25 at the RBC Canadian Open. Adberg also finished inside the top 25 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational back in March. This kid is extremely talented, he has all the tools needed to compete at TPC River Highlands this weekend. Our wager is a half unit on a top 30 finish.
(Pick posted 6/20 at 10:30am via FanDuel)

0.5 UNIT PLAY

Austin Eckroat Top 30 Finish (+190)

24 year old Austin Eckroat is playing very consistent golf right now. He has four consecutive top 30 finishes, including a top 10 finish at the U.S. Open this past weekend. Eckroat shot a 65 on Sunday, and tied a course record posting a 29 through the first 9 holes. He ranks 23rd on tour in strokes gained off the tee. Eckroat isn't the longest hitter, but he's very accurate with his driver (6th in driving efficiency). TPC River Highlands is a shorter course, which favors accuracy over distance. We like this (+190) price on a top 30 finish for the Oklahoma State prodigy. Our stake is a half unit.
(Pick posted 6/20 at 10:32am via FanDuel)

0.5 UNIT PLAY

Eric Cole Top 40 Finish (+210)

Eric Cole has finished inside the top 40 in seven of his last ten events. Cole has only had one tournament this season where he made the cut, but failed to finish inside the top 40. We got a little greedy last week and bet Cole for a top 30 finish instead of a top 40. He was in the top 30 the entire event, but then shot a 74 on Sunday and finished 39th. Tough break for us, but we are right back on Eric Cole. This time we will stick with a top 40 finish. Cole ranks 16th in strokes gained putting, and has very good fairway proximity. His game should translate well to TPC River Highlands.
(Pick posted 6/20 at 9:40am via FanDuel)

0.25 UNIT PLAY

Collin Morikawa Top 5 Finish (+500)

Collin Morikawa is one of the more intriguing options in terms of value in this event. He’s in good form with a 14th place finish at the U.S. Open this past weekend. Morikawa missed two consecutive cuts at the Zurich Classic and Wells Fargo Championship, but has not finished outside the top 30 since. The injuries look to be behind him, and his game aligns extremely well with TPC River Highlands. Morikawa is 2nd on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach to the green, trailing only Scottie Scheffler. He ranks 11th in proximity to hole, and has fantastic metrics approaching from 100-175 yards. If Morikawa can get his putter going, he should be right in the mix on Sunday. Rather than betting him outright, we opted for a (+500) price on a top 5 finish.
(Pick posted 6/21 at 7:07am via BetRivers)

0.25 UNIT PLAY

Patrick Cantlay To Win (+1200)

Patrick Cantlay is still seeking his first win of the season. He has five finishes within the top 5, and three within the top 3. Cantlay has a strong track record at TPC River Highlands. He has five consecutive finishes within the top 15, including a 13th place finish last year (-10). Our model shows no value or edge in the finishing position markets for Cantlay. However, our model is right in line with the 7% implied win probability on an outright win. Cantlay’s metrics are arguably the best amongst all players on the PGA Tour who do not have a win this season. Tyrrell Hatton is another player to keep an eye on in this regard, but Hatton is not playing in this event. We believe a win is coming soon for Cantlay, and we want to have a ticket on him when it happens.
(Pick posted 6/20 at 10:15am via BetMGM)

0.25 UNIT PLAY

Jon Rahm To Win (+1200)

Similar to Patrick Cantlay, we can’t get behind Rahm’s finishing position prices. However, we see good value on Rahm’s outright price at (+1200). Our model forecasts roughly a 8.5% probability of Rahm winning, which is greater than this price being offered at DraftKings implies. Jon Rahm is lethal with his irons, he ranks 3rd in strokes gained approach to the green. He’s 6th in overall proximity, and 2nd in fairway proximity. Rahm trails only Scottie Scheffler in scoring average and strokes gained total. For all of these reasons, we locked in a Rahm outright ticket.
(Pick posted 6/21 at 7:11am via DraftKings)