We see good value on the Padres as decent sized underdogs on the road in Atlanta. The starting pitching matchup between Charlie Morton and Michael Wacha is a bit unpredictable. Morton recorded a win in his first start, but he was hit relatively hard (9 hits, 3 earned runs in 5.1 innings). Wacha also recorded a win, but his 6 innings were less than stellar (6 hits, 4 earned runs, just 2 strikeouts). The bookmakers are calling for runs tonight with the total set at 9. With a higher total like this, the books expect more variance. This typically favors the underdog and the road team in terms of the odds. This Padres team is extremely talented. San Diego won’t be a (+140) underdog often. We like this value enough to toss in a half unit bet on the road dogs.

We like the starting pitching matchup for the Angels tonight. Tyler Anderson had a phenomenal spring, and followed that up with a 4 hit shutout win in his season debut. The other side of this matchup features Blue Jays starter, Jose Berrios. Last season Berrios posted a solid 12-7 record. However, a large part of that was due to the incredible run support he received for the Blue Jays offense. Berrios hard hit rate metrics were alarmingly high last season. Those metrics look to be equally bad early this season. Jose Berrios got rocked in his season opener (8 earned runs in 5.2 innings). With a healthy Angels lineup featuring Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, Berrios could be in for a tough night at the office. The Angels should have a great opportunity to bounce back with a win tonight.