In this in state rivalry matchup, we have a highly talented offense with North Carolina, and a very good defense with NC State. North Carolina's offense is led by redshirt freshman QB Drake Maye. For those who have not watched Drake Maye, this freshman looks every bit the part of a future top pick in the NFL draft. Maye has this offense ranked in the top tier of the nation in many key categories. The elephant in the room with North Carolina is that they lost outright to Georgia Tech last week as a 21 point betting favorite. That said, we frequently see teams bounce back strong after flat spots, and that's what we are expecting here in this rivalry game. The NC State defense has not played nearly as well on the road this season. They've lost 3 of their 4 road games, and the lone win was by 1 point against ECU. It is worth noting that this North Carolina defense is pretty bad. Regardless, we feel comfortable laying the 6.5 points behind a much better offense. This game is being played in Chapel Hill at Keenan Memorial Stadium. Our bet is 1 unit on the home team.

Florida has several starters listed as questionable or out for this game. They also have a key defender who will miss a half due to targeting. That said, most of the injuries are at positions that don't have a large impact on the betting spread. Not to mention, both of these programs bring in new batches of top recruits every year, so the gap between these players typically isn't too steep. For us this bet comes down to getting a lot of points in a rivalry that Florida has dominated in recent years. Florida has beaten Florida State each year since 2018, and our numbers don't suggest the talent gap is that steep this year. In terms of recent momentum, Florida looked bad last week losing to Vanderbilt as a 14 point favorite. Florida State on the other hand, has been rolling teams. Since losing 3 straight in the middle of the season, Florida State has blown out their last 4 opponents. Regardless of that trajectory, we will buy low on the Gators, and sell high on Florida State.

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