This is a bet we are going to jump on early with the hopes of getting strong closing line value. Regardless of whether or not Jalen Hurts plays in this game, our data suggests that giving the Eagles 5.5 points is too many. There are 3 areas where this Cowboys team ranks below the league average. Those include run defense, pass blocking, and quarterback play. This Eagles roster has all of the ingredients needed to take advantage of those weak spots. The Eagles pass rush metrics rank top 3 in the league (PFF has them 1st), their pass coverage metrics rank top 5, and they have a great run blocking offensive line. So again, regardless of who suits up at QB, 5.5 points is too many for us to pass up. Gardner Minshew is one of the most capable backup QBs in the NFL. Going back to 2019, his passing metrics rank above many current starting QB’s. Minshew has been phenomenal with a clean pocket, and while the Cowboys do get a lot of pressure on the QB, the Eagles offensive line does a great job of keeping the pocket clean. The updated DVOA rankings have the Eagles ranked 2nd overall, only trailing the Bills. This is a rare spot where we believe we are getting the better overall team as a decent sized dog. Our bet is 2 units on the division dogs to keep this game within 5 points.

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